About to head over to a family friend’s home to celebrate the San Francisco 49ers playing in the NFC championship game today against the Seattle Seahawks. This provided the opportunity for me to post something mathematical related to the team and their chances of winning today.
The following excerpt from Playoffstatus.com shows that the 49ers have a 38% chance of winning today.
The site computes post-season probabilities for the entire NFL, as shown for the top teams below.
Note that the probability shown in this table differs from the one in first table. This is most likely due to a different level of precision selected for computation and eventual display in the different tables. I’ve been away from coding and databases structures too long to know whether the data in these tables are computed once and stored for local display or computed separately per table.
I like that they also show the odds of the 49ers winning the SuperBowl, given the current field of contenders. This appears to be a great site for algebra 2 and probability students everywhere to explore conditional probability. As an example, assuming the 49ers make it to the SuperBowl, what is their chance of winning against the Broncos (63% chance of going to the SuperBowl, prior to AFC championship game time) versus the Patriots (37% chance)? [It appears the Broncos are going to the SuperBowl as of 6:08 PM EDT with the final score: 26-16.]
Next year, I am going to follow this site more closely, and see if I can integrate aspects of it into my algebra 1 course, without going too deep into the probability side. I might explore doing so even with probabilities, too, if there is interest from students. Just trying to find a hook for students, even if it is only one!